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    South African International Trade Trends 2025

    Marthinus Havenga | South Africa | 01 December 2025

    South African International Trade Trends 2022

    Marthinus Havenga | South Africa | 31 October 2022

    Report Info

    Report Summary Table of Contents
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    Report Coverage

    The report provides a detailed overview of South Africa’s international trade trends up to 2025, highlighting how global shocks, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and evolving policy frameworks shape the country’s trade performance. The report also evaluates South Africa’s evolving trade relations with China and the US.

    Introduction

    South Africa, a small and highly open economy, relies heavily on trade, which accounted for nearly 60% of GDP in 2024. Long-term data show robust growth in imports and exports since 1994, although growth has slowed significantly since 2015 due to structural constraints, global disruptions, and declining competitiveness. High commodity prices—driven by the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East instability, and renewed US protectionism under Trump’s second term—boosted South Africa’s trade surplus, but also underscored the risks of an undiversified, commodity-dependent export base. Regionally, Asia has become South Africa’s dominant trading partner, overtaking Europe as the leading source of imports and the top export destination. Africa has simultaneously become increasingly important, now accounting for nearly a third of South Africa’s exports and providing the country’s most favourable trade balance due to demand for manufactured goods. However, trade with the rest of Africa remains highly concentrated in SADC, leaving substantial untapped opportunities for expansion under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). At the product level, South Africa’s imports are dominated by refined petroleum, vehicles, machinery, and electronics, while exports remain heavily concentrated in minerals—particularly PGMs, gold, coal, and iron ore. Although vehicles and machinery are key high-value exports, logistics failures at Transnet and limited industrial development dampen potential growth, resulting in lost market share in several expanding global sectors. China is now the country’s largest partner in both imports and exports, but this creates vulnerability to Chinese economic slowdowns. With the US, the expiration of the AGOA and the introduction of President Donald Trump’s new “Liberation Day tariffs”, have significantly reduced exports of vehicles, steel, machinery, and yachts, even though rising prices for precious metals have boosted South Africa’s overall surplus with the US.

    Outlook

    The report concludes that South Africa needs to diversify export markets, expand value-added manufacturing, and enhance logistics to reduce global risks and achieve sustained trade-driven growth.

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    South African International Trade Trends
    South African International Trade Trends 2025

    Full Report

    R 20 000.00(ZAR) estimated $1185.37 (USD)*

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    Historical Reports

    South African International Trade Trends 2022-10-31

    R 1 900.00(ZAR) estimated $112.61 (USD)*

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    Table of Contents

    [ Close ]
    PAGE
    1. INTRODUCTION 1
    2. TRADE AS A DRIVER OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 1
    2.1. South Africa’s Evolving Trade and Industrial Policy 1
    2.2. Trade’s Contribution to South Africa’s Economic Activity 3
    3. OVERALL TRADE TRENDS 5
    3.1. Long-term Trends 5
    3.2. Short-term Trends 8
    4. REGIONAL TRADE TRENDS 10
    4.1. Imports 10
    4.2. Exports 11
    5. TRADE TRENDS BY PARTNER COUNTRY 13
    5.1. The Butterfly Strategy 13
    5.2. Imports 14
    5.3. Exports 17
    6. TRADE TRENDS BY PRODUCT 20
    6.1. Imports 20
    6.2. Exports – Winners and Losers 24
    7. TRADE WITH AFRICA 26
    7.1. Trade Trends 28
    7.2. Trade Partners 29
    7.3. Trade by Sub-region 31
    7.4. Traded Products 32
    7.5. Intra-African Trade 33
    7.6. Trade with Africa versus Trade with BRICS 35
    7.7. Challenges 36
    8. TRADE WITH CHINA 37
    8.1. Implications for South Africa 39
    9. TRADE WITH THE US 41
    9.1. Liberation Day Tariffs 42
    9.2. AGOA 45
    10. MAIN TRADE AGREEMENTS/ARRANGEMENTS 46
    10.1. Customs Union 46
    10.2. Free Trade Agreements 47
    10.3. Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) 55
    10.4. Non-reciprocal Arrangements 57
    11. DRIVERS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE GROWTH 58
    11.1. Global Competitiveness 58
    11.2. Transport and Logistics 59
    11.3. Port Performance 61
    12. OUTLOOK 62
    13. REFERENCES 63
    13.1. Publications 63
    13.2. Websites 64
    Appendix 1 – Harmonised System Codes 65

    Report Coverage

    This report on South African trade trends is one of Who Owns Whom’s series of trends reports. It includes information on trends by region, country and by product, various trade agreements and arrangements and the impact of external shocks and recent events.

    Introduction

    • As South Africa is a small, open economy, international trade can be seen as the engine room of its economy.
    • With total trade worth R3.2tn in 2021, and a contribution of almost 60% to GDP, an increase in trade can steer the country onto a new and elevated growth path.
    • The huge positive trade surplus in 2021 came on the back of the commodity boom which benefited minerals exports, while higher prices for the import of oil, wheat, sunflower oil and fertiliser resulted in imported inflation.
    • The potential that trade holds for the country can only be fully unlocked if South African companies are globally competitive, which is difficult in the current environment of failing road, rail and port infrastructure, electricity shortages and labour stoppages.

    Outlook

    • South African importers and exporters have the ability to change the growth path of South Africa fundamentally, even in a world where protective measures and localisation efforts are on the increase.
    • Government must play its role in creating a stable economic environment free from impediments to international trade.
    • Without world class infrastructure such as roads, rail and ports, products can’t reach their destinations. Electricity supply and costs must be resolved.
    • The country must lessen its dependency on commodity exports. Commodity prices will come down in future and affect the trade balance.
    • The concentration of trade partners imports presents a risk and efforts should be made to diversify.
    • If companies make full use of market access opportunities and industrial support measures available, enhance their global competitiveness and re-align their growth strategies to be more outward-orientated, then the trade prospects are endless.
    • Africa probably holds the most potential, with AfCFTA providing the impetus for eliminating trade barriers.

    Read More..
    South African International Trade Trends
    South African International Trade Trends 2022

    Full Report

    R 1 900.00(ZAR) estimated $112.61 (USD)*

    Buy Now +

    Historical Reports

    South African International Trade Trends 2025-12-01

    R 20 000.00(ZAR) estimated $1185.37 (USD)*

    View Report Add to Cart

    Table of Contents

    [ Close ]
    PAGE
    1. INTRODUCTION 1
    2. TRADE AS CATALYST OF SOUTH AFRICA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH 1
    2.1. South Africa’s Changing Trade and Industrial Policy Landscape 1
    2.2. Trade’s Contribution to South Africa’s Economic Activity 3
    3. SOUTH AFRICA’S TOTAL TRADE TRENDS 6
    3.1. Long-term Trends 6
    3.2. Short-term Trends 9
    4. SOUTH AFRICA’S REGIONAL TRADE TRENDS 10
    4.1. Imports 10
    4.2. Exports 12
    5. SOUTH AFRICA’S TRADE TRENDS BY PARTNER COUNTRY 14
    5.1. Imports 14
    5.2. Exports 16
    6. SOUTH AFRICA’S TRADE TRENDS BY PRODUCT 18
    6.1. Imports 18
    6.2. Exports 20
    6.3. Exports – A Strategic View 23
    7. SOUTH AFRICA’S TRADE WITH CHINA 25
    7.1. The Implications for South Africa 28
    8. SOUTH AFRICA’S TRADE WITH AFRICA 30
    8.1. Overall Trade Trends 32
    8.2. Trade Partners 33
    8.3. Traded Products 35
    8.4. Intra-African Trade 37
    8.5. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) 38
    8.6. Trade with Africa versus Trade with BRICS 40
    8.7. Red Flags 42
    9. SOUTH AFRICA’S MAIN TRADE AGREEMENTS/ARRANGEMENTS 42
    9.1. Customs Union 43
    9.2. Free Trade Agreements 44
    9.3. Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) 49
    9.4. Non-reciprocal Arrangements 50
    9.5. Non-reciprocal Arrangements 54
    10. IMPACT OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS 57
    11. OUTLOOK 66
    12. REFERENCES 67
    12.1. Publications 67
    12.2. Websites 68
    Appendix 1 69
    Harmonised System Codes 69

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