Who Owns Whom

South African Trade Trends Report 2022

Marthinus Havenga | South Africa | 31 October 2022

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Report Coverage

This report on South African trade trends is one of Who Owns Whom’s series of trends reports. It includes information on trends by region, country and by product, various trade agreements and arrangements and the impact of external shocks and recent events.

South African Trade Trends

As South Africa is a small, open economy, international trade can be seen as the engine room of its economy. A huge trade surplus in 2021 came on the back of the commodity boom of the last two years which benefited minerals exports, while higher prices paid for the import of oil, wheat, sunflower oil and fertiliser resulted in imported inflation. South Africa’s trade potential can only be fully unlocked if companies are globally competitive, which is difficult in the current environment of failing road, rail and port infrastructure, electricity shortages and labour stoppages.

External Factors

Events such as the outbreak of the pandemic and invasion of Ukraine can change the trade landscape overnight. While they did not have a material effect on South Africa’s trade numbers, there were price, direction of trade and supply chain effects. The external shocks resulted in rising commodity prices and mineral exports, and affected prices of some imported products. There was a significant change in the direction of coal exports as countries scrambled for alternative sources of coal and gas than from Russia. Major logistical bottlenecks resulted in additional freight costs.

Major Products

Given South Africa’s high energy needs and its lack of energy resources, oil has consistently been the country’s top import product. Other major imports include high value-added products and final consumer goods, as well as capital goods for the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors. Imports also include intermediary goods used as inputs in manufacturing. Oil was the top import product in 2021 followed by vehicles and parts, and machinery. Exports are largely commodity- or agriculture-based, and precious metals and stones accounted for the most exports.

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South African Trade Trends Report 2022

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R 9 500.00(ZAR) estimated $502.40 (USD)*

Table of Contents

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PAGE
1. INTRODUCTION 1
2. TRADE AS CATALYST OF SOUTH AFRICA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH 1
2.1. South Africa’s Changing Trade and Industrial Policy Landscape 1
2.2. Trade’s Contribution to South Africa’s Economic Activity 3
3. SOUTH AFRICA’S TOTAL TRADE TRENDS 6
3.1. Long-term Trends 6
3.2. Short-term Trends 9
4. SOUTH AFRICA’S REGIONAL TRADE TRENDS 10
4.1. Imports 10
4.2. Exports 12
5. SOUTH AFRICA’S TRADE TRENDS BY PARTNER COUNTRY 14
5.1. Imports 14
5.2. Exports 16
6. SOUTH AFRICA’S TRADE TRENDS BY PRODUCT 18
6.1. Imports 18
6.2. Exports 20
6.3. Exports – A Strategic View 23
7. SOUTH AFRICA’S TRADE WITH CHINA 25
7.1. The Implications for South Africa 28
8. SOUTH AFRICA’S TRADE WITH AFRICA 30
8.1. Overall Trade Trends 32
8.2. Trade Partners 33
8.3. Traded Products 35
8.4. Intra-African Trade 37
8.5. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) 38
8.6. Trade with Africa versus Trade with BRICS 40
8.7. Red Flags 42
9. SOUTH AFRICA’S MAIN TRADE AGREEMENTS/ARRANGEMENTS 42
9.1. Customs Union 43
9.2. Free Trade Agreements 44
9.3. Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) 49
9.4. Non-reciprocal Arrangements 50
9.5. Non-reciprocal Arrangements 54
10. IMPACT OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS 57
11. OUTLOOK 66
12. REFERENCES 67
12.1. Publications 67
12.2. Websites 68
Appendix 1 69
Harmonised System Codes 69